THE ARCHIVE
Every forecast,
in order.
24 questions in Artificial Intelligence. Sorted by newest.
◆ Artificial Intelligence 141▲ Markets & Economy 139⬢ Geopolitics 109▢ Policy & Law 97◇ Gaming 94⚡ Energy 85▽ Security & Defense 76◉ Climate & Environment 69✦ Space 66▣ Consumer Tech 48◈ Crypto & Finance 47❖ Biotech 38✚ Health & Medicine 36▶ Transportation 35
3M
27 Jan 2027
The Article 50(2) transparency compliance deadline for pre-existing AI systems takes effect on 2 December 2026.
91%
AI
3M
17 Jan 2027
Colorado adopts final AI rules under SB 26-189 and HB 26-1263 before January 1, 2027.
79%
AI
3M
1 Dec 2026
Anthropic completes an IPO by November 30, 2026.
5%
AI vs 88%
3M
15 Jan 2027
Additional EU AI Act obligations take effect on 2 December 2026.
55%
AI
3M
8 Jan 2027
Anthropic's policy prohibiting abusive behavior directed at Claude takes effect on November 12, 2026.
88%
AI
3M
6 Jan 2027
Legislation defining 'Super Intelligence' is submitted to the U.S. Congress within 60 days of the executive order.
63%
AI
3M
4 Jan 2027
The Trump administration submits draft legislation legally defining 'Super Intelligence' by late November 2026.
25%
AI
3M
1 Jan 2027
Google, OpenAI, and Anthropic publicly launch an industry-run AI safety standards body by the end of 2026.
38%
AI
3M
30 Dec 2026
OpenAI releases the model delayed in late September 2026 before the end of the year.
66%
AI
3M
30 Dec 2026
The European Commission advances new binding AI regulations before the end of 2026.
27%
AI
3M
30 Dec 2026
A bipartisan Senate AI safety bill is officially introduced before the Senate adjourns for the 2026 election.
36%
AI
3M
30 Dec 2026
The U.S. Congress passes an AI safety bill before the November 2026 midterm election.
8%
AI
3M
26 Dec 2026
Providers of legacy synthetic media systems comply with Article 50(2) of the EU AI Act by December 2, 2026.
35%
AI
3M
26 Dec 2026
The White House issues an executive order on AI safety before the November 2026 midterm elections.
20%
AI
3M
26 Dec 2026
The U.S. House schedules floor action on an AI bill during its post-midterm session in 2026.
27%
AI
3M
26 Dec 2026
Congress moves an AI safety bill before the House enters recess ahead of the November 2026 midterm elections.
12%
AI
3M
23 Dec 2026
OMB discloses that at least one federal agency discontinued a high-impact AI system due to non-compliance with M-25-21.
16%
AI
3M
23 Dec 2026
Microsoft publishes a finalized AI governance framework following its six-week public consultation.
72%
AI
3M
18 Dec 2026
The U.S. Congress enacts a mandatory national AI safety framework before the end of 2026.
10%
AI
3M
18 Dec 2026
The U.S. Congress advances AI regulation legislation during the post-election lame-duck session in 2026.
18%
AI
3M
18 Dec 2026
Three U.S. senators introduce legislation requiring AI companies to prove reasonable precautions against harm before Congress adjourns in 2026.
75%
AI
3M
18 Dec 2026
The UK government introduces an AI Bill addressing human-rights risks from AI systems before the end of 2026.
27%
AI
3M
13 Dec 2026
The European Commission AI Office fills about 40 contractual agent posts ahead of the December 2026 enforcement deadline.
78%
AI
3M
13 Dec 2026
The EU AI Act watermarking and metadata deadline for legacy generative AI systems takes effect on December 2, 2026.
76%
AI