THE ARCHIVE
Every forecast,
in order.
15 questions in Artificial Intelligence. Sorted by newest.
◆ Artificial Intelligence 141▲ Markets & Economy 139⬢ Geopolitics 109▢ Policy & Law 97◇ Gaming 94⚡ Energy 85▽ Security & Defense 76◉ Climate & Environment 69✦ Space 66▣ Consumer Tech 48◈ Crypto & Finance 47❖ Biotech 38✚ Health & Medicine 36▶ Transportation 35
3Y
28 Oct 2029
The EU AI Act compliance deadline for Annex III high-risk AI systems takes effect on 2 December 2027.
88%
AI
3Y
16 Oct 2029
A consensus-recognized Artificial General Intelligence system is created before 2028.
13%
AI
3Y
16 Oct 2029
The US Congress passes the National AI Charter Act into law by the end of 2027.
4%
AI
3Y
16 Oct 2029
California establishes the AI registry and standards required under AB 1405 by 1 December 2027.
58%
AI
3Y
7 Oct 2029
The product-linked rules of the EU AI Act enter into application on 2 August 2028.
75%
AI
3Y
7 Oct 2029
Deferred Annex III rules under the EU AI Act begin enforcement on 2 December 2027 as currently scheduled.
59%
AI
3Y
1 Jan 2028
OpenAI announces a bankruptcy filing by December 31, 2027.
3%
AI vs 8%
3Y
1 Jan 2028
Anthropic announces a bankruptcy filing by December 31, 2027.
3%
AI vs 10%
3Y
28 Sept 2029
The European Union further delays the Annex III high-risk compliance deadline beyond 2 December 2027.
34%
AI
3Y
23 Sept 2029
A national government adopts mandatory capability-based AI safety thresholds that pause model development.
26%
AI
3Y
21 Sept 2029
The EU AI Act's standalone Annex III high-risk compliance deadline changes from December 2, 2027.
25%
AI
3Y
13 Sept 2029
The European Commission maintains the 2 December 2027 compliance deadline for Annex III high-risk AI systems without further extension.
62%
AI
3Y
13 Sept 2029
The EU AI Act standalone Annex III high-risk compliance deadline takes effect on 2 December 2027 without further delay.
67%
AI
3Y
13 Sept 2029
The European Union further modifies AI Act compliance deadlines or carve-outs before 2 December 2027.
40%
AI
3Y
13 Sept 2029
The EU amends or issues official implementing guidance for Annex III high-risk AI obligations before December 2, 2027.
78%
AI