THE ARCHIVE

Every forecast,
in order.

30 questions in Policy & Law. Sorted by newest.

1 week1 month3 months6 months1 year3 years5 years10 years50 years
◆ Artificial Intelligence 141▲ Markets & Economy 139⬢ Geopolitics 109▢ Policy & Law 97◇ Gaming 94⚡ Energy 85▽ Security & Defense 76◉ Climate & Environment 69✦ Space 66▣ Consumer Tech 48◈ Crypto & Finance 47❖ Biotech 38✚ Health & Medicine 36▶ Transportation 35
3M 26 Jan 2027

The 60-day pause on sweeping U.S. sanctions against Russia expires without being extended.

▢ Policy & Law spread 35
38%
AI
3M 1 Jan 2027

France enters a declared state of emergency by December 31, 2026.

▢ Policy & Law spread 5 vs market -2
6%
AI vs 8%
3M 1 Dec 2026

A new White House Press Secretary is announced by November 30, 2026.

▢ Policy & Law spread 22 vs market -17
18%
AI vs 35%
3M 14 Jan 2027

The European Union adopts additional sanctions listings against Russia before December 31, 2026.

▢ Policy & Law spread 34
89%
AI
3M 14 Jan 2027

The United States and China maintain their bilateral trade truce through January 2027.

▢ Policy & Law spread 20
73%
AI
3M 4 Nov 2026

The Democratic nominee wins the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Texas.

▢ Policy & Law spread 24 vs market -49
20%
AI vs 69%
3M 4 Nov 2026

A Republican candidate wins the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Kansas.

▢ Policy & Law spread 8 vs market +33
94%
AI vs 61%
3M 4 Nov 2026

A Republican candidate wins the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Texas.

▢ Policy & Law spread 12 vs market +50
82%
AI vs 32%
3M 4 Nov 2026

A Democrat wins the Kansas US Senate seat in the 2026 midterm election.

▢ Policy & Law spread 5 vs market -32
6%
AI vs 38%
3M 31 Dec 2026

The European Union formally extends its Russia sanctions regime currently under review.

▢ Policy & Law spread 15
90%
AI
3M 4 Nov 2026

The Republican Party wins control of the U.S. Senate in the 2026 midterm elections.

▢ Policy & Law spread 32 vs market +29
63%
AI vs 34%
3M 4 Nov 2026

The Republican nominee wins the Ohio U.S. Senate race in 2026.

▢ Policy & Law spread 16 vs market +46
77%
AI vs 31%
3M 4 Nov 2026

Steve Hilton wins the 2026 California gubernatorial election.

▢ Policy & Law spread 10 vs market +2
5%
AI vs 3%
3M 3 Nov 2026

The Republican nominee wins the Nebraska U.S. Senate race in 2026.

▢ Policy & Law spread 44 vs market +18
91%
AI vs 73%
3M 3 Nov 2026

Dan Sullivan wins reelection in the 2026 Alaska U.S. Senate race.

▢ Policy & Law spread 21 vs market +54
80%
AI vs 26%
3M 22 Dec 2026

The White House officially restores press credentials to all three barred news outlets by December 31, 2026.

▢ Policy & Law spread 46
25%
AI
3M 22 Dec 2026

The White House imposes tariffs on nations importing Russian oil and gas under the Lindsey O. Graham Act by December 31, 2026.

▢ Policy & Law spread 30
25%
AI
3M 21 Dec 2026

The Election Commission of India publishes the draft electoral roll for the upcoming assembly cycle before December 2026.

▢ Policy & Law spread 16
84%
AI
3M 20 Dec 2026

The United States imposes a 100% tariff on imports from India over purchases of Russian oil.

▢ Policy & Law spread 19
12%
AI
3M 19 Dec 2026

The U.S. Senate passes H.J. Res. 210 or H.J. Res. 213 under the Congressional Review Act to repeal maritime ship air-pollution limits.

▢ Policy & Law spread 71
55%
AI
3M 18 Dec 2026

The UN Security Council takes formal action or holds a vote regarding Iran's nuclear program.

▢ Policy & Law spread 40
50%
AI
3M 17 Dec 2026

California enforces the revised Scope 1 and Scope 2 emissions reporting deadline under SB 253 on 10 November 2026.

▢ Policy & Law spread 23
70%
AI
3M 3 Nov 2026

Republicans win majorities in both the US Senate and House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections.

▢ Policy & Law spread 40 vs market +31
38%
AI vs 7%
3M 3 Nov 2026

The Republican Party wins control of the US House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections.

▢ Policy & Law spread 50 vs market +26
34%
AI vs 8%
3M 3 Nov 2026

The Democratic Party wins control of the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections.

▢ Policy & Law spread 25 vs market -26
66%
AI vs 92%
3M 14 Dec 2026

The UK government delays its decision on a North Sea gasfield until after the Holborn and St Pancras byelection.

▢ Policy & Law spread 52
56%
AI
3M 13 Dec 2026

The UK North Sea gasfield approval decision is announced after the Holborn and St Pancras by-election.

▢ Policy & Law spread 61
73%
AI
3M 13 Dec 2026

The U.K., France, and Canada formally implement new trade restrictions on Israel.

▢ Policy & Law spread 44
23%
AI
3M 3 Nov 2026

The Democratic Party wins majorities in both the US Senate and House of Representatives in the 2026 midterms.

▢ Policy & Law spread 24 vs market -44
22%
AI vs 66%
3M 3 Nov 2026

The Democratic Party wins control of the US Senate in the 2026 midterm elections.

▢ Policy & Law spread 21 vs market -36
31%
AI vs 67%