THE ARCHIVE
Every forecast,
in order.
33 questions in Geopolitics. Sorted by newest.
◆ Artificial Intelligence 141▲ Markets & Economy 139⬢ Geopolitics 109▢ Policy & Law 97◇ Gaming 94⚡ Energy 85▽ Security & Defense 76◉ Climate & Environment 69✦ Space 66▣ Consumer Tech 48◈ Crypto & Finance 47❖ Biotech 38✚ Health & Medicine 36▶ Transportation 35
3M
1 Dec 2026
The US publicly announces the end of its naval blockade of Iran by November 30, 2026.
11%
AI vs 27%
3M
29 Nov 2026
Puma Shen is elected Mayor of Taipei in the November 2026 municipal election.
5%
AI vs 34%
3M
29 Nov 2026
Chiang Wan-an wins the 2026 Taipei mayoral election.
74%
AI vs 68%
3M
1 Jan 2027
Benjamin Netanyahu ceases to be Prime Minister of Israel by the end of 2026.
18%
AI vs 21%
3M
26 Jan 2027
A new Israeli government is sworn in with a governing coalition majority following the election.
57%
AI
3M
1 Jan 2027
No listed national leader ceases to permanently occupy their office before 2027.
56%
AI vs 45%
3M
23 Jan 2027
Houthi forces reopen humanitarian access routes into Taiz, Yemen.
18%
AI
3M
1 Jan 2027
Kim Jong Un ceases to be Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026.
3%
AI vs 4%
3M
16 Jan 2027
Commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz is formally restricted or halted by Iranian forces.
12%
AI
3M
16 Jan 2027
Ukraine and Russia formally confirm an energy ceasefire agreement based on the U.S. proposal.
19%
AI
3M
14 Jan 2027
Russia and Ukraine reach an agreement to limit strikes on grain and energy infrastructure before winter 2026.
20%
AI
3M
30 Nov 2026
Russia and Ukraine hold direct diplomatic peace talks by November 30, 2026.
11%
AI vs 79%
3M
31 Dec 2026
Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani attends a formal US-Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026.
12%
AI vs 23%
3M
12 Jan 2027
Negotiators announce an agreed ceasefire or peace framework between Russia and Ukraine resulting from the Miami talks.
12%
AI
3M
1 Jan 2027
Ukraine recaptures territory in Crimea by December 31, 2026.
4%
AI vs 3%
3M
10 Jan 2027
Ukraine and Russia agree to a formal ceasefire.
19%
AI
3M
1 Jan 2027
Pedro Sánchez ceases to be Prime Minister of Spain by December 31, 2026.
12%
AI vs 20%
3M
3 Jan 2027
Houthi forces enter Taiz City by December 31, 2026.
12%
AI
3M
1 Jan 2027
Ukraine and Russia reach an agreement establishing a shipping corridor or ceasefire for Black Sea grain exports.
22%
AI
3M
1 Jan 2027
The United Nations agrees on and appoints a successor to Secretary-General António Guterres before December 31, 2026.
85%
AI
3M
31 Dec 2026
Russia and Ukraine agree to a ceasefire, prisoner exchange, or limited truce before December 31, 2026.
63%
AI
3M
1 Nov 2026
The United States and Iran sign or adopt a final nuclear agreement by October 31, 2026.
20%
AI vs 0%
3M
25 Dec 2026
Official peace talks between Ukraine and Russia begin before winter 2026.
31%
AI
3M
24 Dec 2026
A direct military conflict between two or more nuclear-armed superpowers begins before the end of 2026.
3%
AI
3M
22 Dec 2026
South Korea and North Korea formally agree to a sanctions-relief-for-nuclear-freeze deal by December 31, 2026.
6%
AI
3M
1 Nov 2026
Russia formally announces a new compulsory military mobilization by October 31, 2026.
12%
AI vs 0%
3M
3 Nov 2026
Mary Peltola wins the Alaska U.S. Senate election in 2026.
21%
AI vs 75%
3M
18 Dec 2026
A bilateral or trilateral ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine is officially announced.
25%
AI
3M
1 Nov 2026
The US announces the end, lifting, or suspension of its naval blockade of Iran by October 31, 2026.
12%
AI vs 6%
3M
13 Dec 2026
Russia and Ukraine announce a broader frontline ceasefire.
17%
AI
3M
13 Dec 2026
Israel and Lebanon reach a formal ceasefire or security arrangement regarding southern Lebanon.
25%
AI
3M
13 Dec 2026
Houthi forces establish territorial control over additional coastal territory along the Red Sea.
18%
AI
3M
13 Dec 2026
Russia and Ukraine accept a frontline ceasefire following diplomatic visits by U.S. envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner.
16%
AI