THE ARCHIVE
Every forecast,
in order.
109 questions in Geopolitics. Sorted by newest.
◆ Artificial Intelligence 141▲ Markets & Economy 139⬢ Geopolitics 109▢ Policy & Law 97◇ Gaming 94⚡ Energy 85▽ Security & Defense 76◉ Climate & Environment 69✦ Space 66▣ Consumer Tech 48◈ Crypto & Finance 47❖ Biotech 38✚ Health & Medicine 36▶ Transportation 35
3M
1 Jan 2027
Ukraine and Russia reach an agreement establishing a shipping corridor or ceasefire for Black Sea grain exports.
22%
AI
3M
1 Jan 2027
The United Nations agrees on and appoints a successor to Secretary-General António Guterres before December 31, 2026.
85%
AI
1M
16 Oct 2026
The United States officially announces the end or suspension of its naval blockade of Iran by October 15, 2026.
10%
AI vs 0%
3M
31 Dec 2026
Russia and Ukraine agree to a ceasefire, prisoner exchange, or limited truce before December 31, 2026.
63%
AI
5Y
1 Oct 2031
The United Kingdom declares war or invokes NATO Article 5 in response to an attack on its homeland before 2030.
4%
AI
10Y
29 Sept 2036
Australia's sovereign territory comes under sustained military attack in a major conflict before 2035.
4%
AI
3Y
1 Oct 2029
A direct military conflict between the United States and Russia or China occurs before 2028.
11%
AI
1W
5 Oct 2026
Renan Santos finishes in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election.✗ didn't
4%
AI vs 0%
1W
5 Oct 2026
A candidate wins more than 50% of valid votes in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election.✗ didn't
14%
AI vs 0%
1W
5 Oct 2026
Flávio Bolsonaro finishes in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election.✗ didn't
14%
AI vs 0%
1W
5 Oct 2026
Flávio Bolsonaro wins the most votes in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election.✓ happened
6%
AI vs 100%
1W
7 Oct 2026
The United States and Iran announce a resumption of formal negotiations or an agreement on the Strait of Hormuz within seven days.✗ didn't
14%
AI
6M
1 Jan 2027
The United States and Iran reach a final written nuclear deal by December 31, 2026.
25%
AI vs 13%
3M
1 Nov 2026
The United States and Iran sign or adopt a final nuclear agreement by October 31, 2026.
20%
AI vs 0%
1Y
1 Jul 2027
Magdalena Andersson is appointed the next Prime Minister of Sweden.
38%
AI vs 72%
1M
28 Oct 2026
The United States provides an official formal response to Iran regarding the Strait of Hormuz proposal.
25%
AI
1W
5 Oct 2026
The United States and China reach an agreement on rare-earth export restrictions during the Trump-Xi meeting this week.✗ didn't
18%
AI
1W
4 Oct 2026
Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva wins the 2026 Brazilian presidential election.✓ happened
48%
AI vs 24%
3M
25 Dec 2026
Official peace talks between Ukraine and Russia begin before winter 2026.
31%
AI
1W
3 Oct 2026
Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas addresses the UN General Assembly by video during the high-level debate.✓ happened
94%
AI
1M
4 Oct 2026
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finishes in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election.✓ happened
26%
AI vs 100%
3M
24 Dec 2026
A direct military conflict between two or more nuclear-armed superpowers begins before the end of 2026.
3%
AI
3Y
23 Sept 2029
A direct military conflict between the United States and China or Russia begins in 2027.
7%
AI
10Y
21 Sept 2036
A global military conflict involving direct warfare between the United States and either China or Russia begins before 2035.
13%
AI
1W
30 Sept 2026
President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping hold an in-person summit in Washington by October 7, 2026.✓ happened
82%
AI
3M
22 Dec 2026
South Korea and North Korea formally agree to a sanctions-relief-for-nuclear-freeze deal by December 31, 2026.
6%
AI
1M
23 Oct 2026
Iran and the United States agree to a formal ceasefire or maritime de-escalation deal by September 30, 2026.
9%
AI
3M
1 Nov 2026
Russia formally announces a new compulsory military mobilization by October 31, 2026.
12%
AI vs 0%
6M
1 Jan 2027
Russian forces enter or capture any territory in Sloviansk by December 31, 2026.
11%
AI vs 7%
6M
31 Dec 2026
Delcy Rodríguez is the officially recognized leader of Venezuela on December 31, 2026.
6%
AI vs 17%
3M
3 Nov 2026
Mary Peltola wins the Alaska U.S. Senate election in 2026.
21%
AI vs 75%
3Y
1 Oct 2027
United Russia wins the greatest number of party list votes in every federal subject in the 2026 Russian legislative election.
77%
AI vs 100%
1M
21 Oct 2026
India and China announce a formal bilateral agreement during or following the September 22, 2026 UN General Assembly sessions.
15%
AI
1M
21 Oct 2026
The UN General Assembly adopts a formal resolution addressing alleged crimes against humanity regarding refugee camp displacements in the West Bank during its session starting September 22, 2026.
25%
AI
1W
28 Sept 2026
A ceasefire, prisoner exchange, or peace framework between Russia and Ukraine is confirmed by the UN General Assembly general debate on September 22, 2026.✗ didn't
9%
AI
6M
31 Dec 2026
Nicolás Maduro is the officially recognized head of state of Venezuela on December 31, 2026.
80%
AI vs 78%
1M
19 Oct 2026
Palestinian officials denied US visas attend the UN General Assembly in New York.
12%
AI
3M
18 Dec 2026
A bilateral or trilateral ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine is officially announced.
25%
AI
1M
30 Sept 2026
The US and Iran hold a formal senior-level diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026.✓ happened
22%
AI vs 100%
6M
1 Jan 2027
The US announces the end or suspension of its naval blockade of Iran by December 31, 2026.
21%
AI vs 34%