THE ARCHIVE
Every forecast,
in order.
130 questions. Sorted by newest.
◆ Artificial Intelligence 137▲ Markets & Economy 133⬢ Geopolitics 100▢ Policy & Law 88◇ Gaming 88⚡ Energy 83▽ Security & Defense 73◉ Climate & Environment 66✦ Space 64◈ Crypto & Finance 46▣ Consumer Tech 42✚ Health & Medicine 35❖ Biotech 32▶ Transportation 30
1W
21 Sept 2026
Japan's headline August CPI rises to at least 2.0% year-on-year.✗ didn't
72%
AI
1W
21 Sept 2026
The Bank of Japan raises interest rates at its September 17–18, 2026 meeting.✓ happened
72%
AI
1W
21 Sept 2026
The Federal Reserve hikes its target interest rate at the September 15–16, 2026 meeting.✓ happened
68%
AI
1M
14 Oct 2026
Donald Trump and Xi Jinping officially extend their bilateral trade truce at the September 24, 2026 summit.✓ happened
56%
AI
1M
14 Oct 2026
U.S. envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner announce a concrete ceasefire framework between Russia and Ukraine.✗ didn't
12%
AI
1M
14 Oct 2026
Saudi Arabia reopens the East-West pipeline following the drone attack from Iraq.✓ happened
78%
AI
1M
14 Oct 2026
Supercell completes its acquisition of Metacore by September 30, 2026.✗ didn't
82%
AI
1W
21 Sept 2026
The IPCC bureau issues formal decisions or next-step instructions during its meeting on September 15-16, 2026.✓ happened
87%
AI
1W
21 Sept 2026
The UN General Assembly formally adopts new commitments on climate action and the just transition at its high-level meeting on September 23, 2026.✗ didn't
37%
AI
1M
14 Oct 2026
The United States and China hold bilateral AI safety talks before the end of September 2026.✓ happened
83%
AI
1M
14 Oct 2026
Governor Gavin Newsom signs the Frontier AI Safety Act into law by 30 September 2026.✗ didn't
38%
AI
1W
21 Sept 2026
The Bank of Japan raises its policy interest rate at its September 18, 2026 meeting.✓ happened
63%
AI
1W
21 Sept 2026
Pro-Kremlin parties retain a majority in Russia's State Duma elections concluding September 20, 2026.✓ happened
98%
AI
1W
21 Sept 2026
The UN General Assembly adopts a joint resolution or formal declaration on Middle East conflicts before concluding on September 22, 2026.✓ happened
54%
AI
1M
14 Oct 2026
The United States and China extend their October 2025 trade truce at their meeting on September 24, 2026.✓ happened
40%
AI
1M
14 Oct 2026
A copyright, trademark, or trade dress lawsuit is filed regarding White House Arcade by October 5, 2026.✗ didn't
4%
AI
1W
21 Sept 2026
The Nevada Gaming Commission approves proposed regulation amendments at its September 17, 2026 hearing.✓ happened
75%
AI
1M
14 Oct 2026
Supercell closes its acquisition of Metacore by the end of September 2026.✗ didn't
88%
AI
1M
14 Oct 2026
External power is successfully restored to the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant following the local ceasefire repairs.✗ didn't
67%
AI
1W
21 Sept 2026
The FDA approves zidesamtinib by its September 18, 2026 PDUFA target action date.✓ happened
80%
AI
1W
21 Sept 2026
The Bank of England holds the Bank Rate at 3.75% at its policy meeting during the week of September 14–18, 2026.✓ happened
80%
AI
1W
21 Sept 2026
The Bank of Japan hikes its policy rate by 25 basis points at its September 18, 2026 meeting.✓ happened
35%
AI
1W
21 Sept 2026
The Federal Reserve raises its target interest rate at its September 16, 2026 meeting.✓ happened
61%
AI
1W
21 Sept 2026
U.S. envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner announce a formal breakthrough in peace talks during their Moscow and Ukraine visits.✗ didn't
12%
AI
1W
21 Sept 2026
The Brazilian Senate approves AI regulation Bill 2338/2023 on 16 September 2026.✗ didn't
56%
AI
1W
21 Sept 2026
China's headline year-on-year producer price index inflation is at or above 3.2% for August 2026.✓ happened
48%
AI
1W
21 Sept 2026
China's headline year-on-year consumer price index inflation is at or above 0.9% for August 2026.✗ didn't
51%
AI
1W
21 Sept 2026
The Bank of Japan raises its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points at its September 18, 2026 meeting.✓ happened
72%
AI
1W
21 Sept 2026
The Federal Reserve leaves the target federal funds rate unchanged at its September 16, 2026 meeting.✗ didn't
68%
AI
1W
21 Sept 2026
A new game announcement or schedule reveal is made by the close of the Tokyo Game Show on September 21, 2026.✓ happened
99%
AI
1W
21 Sept 2026
The Brazilian Senate approves Bill 2338/2023 in its plenary floor vote on September 16, 2026.✗ didn't
32%
AI
1W
21 Sept 2026
The Bank of England announces an interest rate increase on September 17, 2026.✗ didn't
8%
AI
1W
21 Sept 2026
The Bank of Japan raises interest rates by at least 25 basis points on September 18, 2026.✓ happened
73%
AI
1W
21 Sept 2026
The Federal Reserve raises interest rates at its September 15-16, 2026 meeting.✓ happened
58%
AI
1W
21 Sept 2026
The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield closes above 4.82% on September 16, 2026.✓ happened
25%
AI
1W
21 Sept 2026
The Bank of Japan raises its policy rate by 25 basis points to 1.25% at its upcoming policy meeting.✓ happened
76%
AI
1W
21 Sept 2026
The Federal Reserve raises the federal funds rate at its September 15-16, 2026 meeting.✓ happened
69%
AI
1W
21 Sept 2026
The opening ceremony of the 20th Asian Games Aichi-Nagoya takes place as scheduled on September 19, 2026.✓ happened
97%
AI
1W
21 Sept 2026
Brazil's Senate passes AI Bill 2338/2023 at its September 16, 2026 vote.✗ didn't
50%
AI
1W
21 Sept 2026
The Bank of Japan raises interest rates by at least 25 basis points at its September 18, 2026 meeting.✓ happened
72%
AI