THE ARCHIVE

Every forecast,
in order.

221 questions. Sorted by newest.

1 week 1 month 3 months 6 months 1 year 3 years 5 years 10 years 50 years

◆ Artificial Intelligence 141 ▲ Markets & Economy 139 ⬢ Geopolitics 109 ▢ Policy & Law 97 ◇ Gaming 94 ⚡ Energy 85 ▽ Security & Defense 76 ◉ Climate & Environment 69 ✦ Space 66 ▣ Consumer Tech 48 ◈ Crypto & Finance 47 ❖ Biotech 38 ✚ Health & Medicine 36 ▶ Transportation 35

3M 25 Dec 2026

The European Central Bank increases its deposit rate at its next policy meeting.

▲ Markets & Economy spread 38

28%

3M 25 Dec 2026

The Federal Reserve raises its benchmark interest rate at its next scheduled policy meeting.

▲ Markets & Economy spread 34

31%

3M 25 Dec 2026

Total cryptocurrency market capitalization reaches a new all-time high before the end of 2026.

◈ Crypto & Finance spread 49

50%

3M 25 Dec 2026

Official peace talks between Ukraine and Russia begin before winter 2026.

⬢ Geopolitics spread 45

31%

3M 25 Dec 2026

President Trump orders renewed attacks in the Iran war before the 2026 midterm elections.

▽ Security & Defense spread 41

36%

3M 4 Nov 2026

Steve Hilton wins the 2026 California gubernatorial election.

▢ Policy & Law spread 10 vs market +2

AI vs 3%

3M 24 Dec 2026

A direct military conflict between two or more nuclear-armed superpowers begins before the end of 2026.

⬢ Geopolitics spread 5

3M 3 Nov 2026

The Republican nominee wins the Nebraska U.S. Senate race in 2026.

▢ Policy & Law spread 44 vs market +18

91%

AI vs 73%

3M 23 Dec 2026

OMB discloses that at least one federal agency discontinued a high-impact AI system due to non-compliance with M-25-21.

◆ Artificial Intelligence spread 23

16%

3M 23 Dec 2026

Microsoft publishes a finalized AI governance framework following its six-week public consultation.

◆ Artificial Intelligence spread 17

72%

3M 3 Nov 2026

Dan Sullivan wins reelection in the 2026 Alaska U.S. Senate race.

▢ Policy & Law spread 21 vs market +54

80%

AI vs 26%

3M 23 Dec 2026

The Federal Reserve raises its policy rate at the November 3-4, 2026 meeting.

▲ Markets & Economy spread 52

38%

3M 22 Dec 2026

The White House officially restores press credentials to all three barred news outlets by December 31, 2026.

▢ Policy & Law spread 46

25%

3M 22 Dec 2026

South Korea and North Korea formally agree to a sanctions-relief-for-nuclear-freeze deal by December 31, 2026.

⬢ Geopolitics spread 5

3M 22 Dec 2026

The White House imposes tariffs on nations importing Russian oil and gas under the Lindsey O. Graham Act by December 31, 2026.

▢ Policy & Law spread 30

25%

3M 1 Nov 2026

Russia formally announces a new compulsory military mobilization by October 31, 2026.

⬢ Geopolitics spread 15 vs market +12

12%

AI vs 0%

3M 22 Dec 2026

Playground Games announces an official 2026 PS5 release date for its undated title before November 2026.

◇ Gaming spread 64

41%

3M 21 Dec 2026

Pre-orders for Grand Theft Auto VI open officially before November 1, 2026.

◇ Gaming spread 23

85%

3M 21 Dec 2026

The EPA's public comment period on rescinding remaining greenhouse-gas requirements for power plants closes on November 2, 2026.

◉ Climate & Environment spread 73

57%

3M 21 Dec 2026

The Election Commission of India publishes the draft electoral roll for the upcoming assembly cycle before December 2026.

▢ Policy & Law spread 16

84%

3M 21 Dec 2026

The US GAO upholds NASA's Mars Telecommunications Network contract award to Blue Origin against Rocket Lab's protest.

✦ Space spread 22

62%

3M 21 Dec 2026

Jaguar Land Rover reports full remediation of its publicized cyber attack before December 2026.

▽ Security & Defense spread 52

67%

3M 20 Dec 2026

The US Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency issues an Emergency Directive for a critical national zero-day vulnerability before November 2026.

▽ Security & Defense spread 60

52%

3M 20 Dec 2026

The Bank of England changes its policy rate at its next scheduled meeting.

▲ Markets & Economy spread 40

52%

3M 20 Dec 2026

The European Central Bank increases interest rates at either of its remaining 2026 meetings.

▲ Markets & Economy spread 21

25%

3M 20 Dec 2026

The Federal Reserve raises interest rates at its next FOMC meeting.

▲ Markets & Economy spread 25

3M 1 Nov 2026

Saudi Arabia announces the East-West oil pipeline has restarted operations by October 31, 2026.

⚡ Energy spread 16 vs market -28

72%

AI vs 100%

3M 3 Nov 2026

Mary Peltola wins the Alaska U.S. Senate election in 2026.

⬢ Geopolitics spread 34 vs market -54

21%

AI vs 75%

3M 20 Dec 2026

Officials meeting in Paris announce an agreed post-UNIFIL security transition plan for southern Lebanon.

▽ Security & Defense spread 19

25%

3M 20 Dec 2026

The United States imposes a 100% tariff on imports from India over purchases of Russian oil.

▢ Policy & Law spread 19

12%

3M 19 Dec 2026

The U.S. Senate passes H.J. Res. 210 or H.J. Res. 213 under the Congressional Review Act to repeal maritime ship air-pollution limits.

▢ Policy & Law spread 71

55%

3M 1 Nov 2026

A direct military clash occurs between NATO forces and Russia by October 31, 2026.

▽ Security & Defense spread 15 vs market +5

AI vs 1%

3M 18 Dec 2026

The U.S. Congress enacts a mandatory national AI safety framework before the end of 2026.

◆ Artificial Intelligence spread 13

10%

3M 18 Dec 2026

The U.S. Congress advances AI regulation legislation during the post-election lame-duck session in 2026.

◆ Artificial Intelligence spread 24

18%

3M 18 Dec 2026

Three U.S. senators introduce legislation requiring AI companies to prove reasonable precautions against harm before Congress adjourns in 2026.

◆ Artificial Intelligence spread 61

75%

3M 18 Dec 2026

The UK government introduces an AI Bill addressing human-rights risks from AI systems before the end of 2026.

◆ Artificial Intelligence spread 45

27%

3M 18 Dec 2026

The Bank of Japan raises its benchmark interest rate at its next policy meeting.

▲ Markets & Economy spread 41

46%

3M 18 Dec 2026

The Bank of England increases the Bank Rate at its next Monetary Policy Committee meeting.

▲ Markets & Economy spread 38

25%

3M 18 Dec 2026

The European Central Bank raises its deposit facility rate at its next policy meeting.

▲ Markets & Economy spread 80

20%

3M 18 Dec 2026

The Federal Reserve raises the target federal funds rate at its next FOMC meeting.

▲ Markets & Economy spread 59

72%

Every forecast,in order.

The European Central Bank increases its deposit rate at its next policy meeting.

The Federal Reserve raises its benchmark interest rate at its next scheduled policy meeting.

Total cryptocurrency market capitalization reaches a new all-time high before the end of 2026.

Official peace talks between Ukraine and Russia begin before winter 2026.

President Trump orders renewed attacks in the Iran war before the 2026 midterm elections.

Steve Hilton wins the 2026 California gubernatorial election.

A direct military conflict between two or more nuclear-armed superpowers begins before the end of 2026.

The Republican nominee wins the Nebraska U.S. Senate race in 2026.

OMB discloses that at least one federal agency discontinued a high-impact AI system due to non-compliance with M-25-21.

Microsoft publishes a finalized AI governance framework following its six-week public consultation.

Dan Sullivan wins reelection in the 2026 Alaska U.S. Senate race.

The Federal Reserve raises its policy rate at the November 3-4, 2026 meeting.

The White House officially restores press credentials to all three barred news outlets by December 31, 2026.

South Korea and North Korea formally agree to a sanctions-relief-for-nuclear-freeze deal by December 31, 2026.

The White House imposes tariffs on nations importing Russian oil and gas under the Lindsey O. Graham Act by December 31, 2026.

Russia formally announces a new compulsory military mobilization by October 31, 2026.

Playground Games announces an official 2026 PS5 release date for its undated title before November 2026.

Pre-orders for Grand Theft Auto VI open officially before November 1, 2026.

The EPA's public comment period on rescinding remaining greenhouse-gas requirements for power plants closes on November 2, 2026.

The Election Commission of India publishes the draft electoral roll for the upcoming assembly cycle before December 2026.

The US GAO upholds NASA's Mars Telecommunications Network contract award to Blue Origin against Rocket Lab's protest.

Jaguar Land Rover reports full remediation of its publicized cyber attack before December 2026.

The US Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency issues an Emergency Directive for a critical national zero-day vulnerability before November 2026.

The Bank of England changes its policy rate at its next scheduled meeting.

The European Central Bank increases interest rates at either of its remaining 2026 meetings.

The Federal Reserve raises interest rates at its next FOMC meeting.

Saudi Arabia announces the East-West oil pipeline has restarted operations by October 31, 2026.

Mary Peltola wins the Alaska U.S. Senate election in 2026.

Officials meeting in Paris announce an agreed post-UNIFIL security transition plan for southern Lebanon.

The United States imposes a 100% tariff on imports from India over purchases of Russian oil.

The U.S. Senate passes H.J. Res. 210 or H.J. Res. 213 under the Congressional Review Act to repeal maritime ship air-pollution limits.

A direct military clash occurs between NATO forces and Russia by October 31, 2026.

The U.S. Congress enacts a mandatory national AI safety framework before the end of 2026.

The U.S. Congress advances AI regulation legislation during the post-election lame-duck session in 2026.

Three U.S. senators introduce legislation requiring AI companies to prove reasonable precautions against harm before Congress adjourns in 2026.

The UK government introduces an AI Bill addressing human-rights risks from AI systems before the end of 2026.

The Bank of Japan raises its benchmark interest rate at its next policy meeting.

The Bank of England increases the Bank Rate at its next Monetary Policy Committee meeting.

The European Central Bank raises its deposit facility rate at its next policy meeting.

The Federal Reserve raises the target federal funds rate at its next FOMC meeting.

Every forecast,
in order.