THE ARCHIVE

Every forecast,
in order.

221 questions. Sorted by newest.

1 week 1 month 3 months 6 months 1 year 3 years 5 years 10 years 50 years

◆ Artificial Intelligence 141 ▲ Markets & Economy 139 ⬢ Geopolitics 109 ▢ Policy & Law 97 ◇ Gaming 94 ⚡ Energy 85 ▽ Security & Defense 76 ◉ Climate & Environment 69 ✦ Space 66 ▣ Consumer Tech 48 ◈ Crypto & Finance 47 ❖ Biotech 38 ✚ Health & Medicine 36 ▶ Transportation 35

3M 4 Nov 2026

Google, OpenAI, and Anthropic publicly launch an industry-run AI safety standards body by the end of 2026.

◆ Artificial Intelligence spread 48

38%

3M 1 Jan 2027

The Federal Reserve raises its 2026 core PCE inflation projection at its next Summary of Economic Projections.

▲ Markets & Economy spread 47

35%

3M 1 Jan 2027

The Federal Reserve raises its target interest rate in December 2026.

▲ Markets & Economy spread 32

17%

3M 1 Jan 2027

Ukraine and Russia reach an agreement establishing a shipping corridor or ceasefire for Black Sea grain exports.

⬢ Geopolitics spread 19

22%

3M 1 Jan 2027

The United Nations agrees on and appoints a successor to Secretary-General António Guterres before December 31, 2026.

⬢ Geopolitics spread 76

85%

3M 31 Dec 2026

Iran or the United States engages in renewed military action or imposes maritime restrictions in the Strait of Hormuz.

▽ Security & Defense spread 54

67%

3M 31 Dec 2026

The European Union formally extends its Russia sanctions regime currently under review.

▢ Policy & Law spread 15

90%

3M 31 Dec 2026

Russia and Ukraine agree to a ceasefire, prisoner exchange, or limited truce before December 31, 2026.

⬢ Geopolitics spread 66

63%

3M 4 Nov 2026

The Republican Party wins control of the U.S. Senate in the 2026 midterm elections.

▢ Policy & Law spread 32 vs market +29

63%

AI vs 34%

3M 4 Nov 2026

The Republican nominee wins the Ohio U.S. Senate race in 2026.

▢ Policy & Law spread 16 vs market +46

77%

AI vs 31%

3M 30 Dec 2026

OpenAI releases the model delayed in late September 2026 before the end of the year.

◆ Artificial Intelligence spread 50

66%

3M 30 Dec 2026

California's new child-safety and social-media AI provisions take effect as scheduled on January 1, 2027.

○ Privacy spread 37

66%

3M 30 Dec 2026

The European Commission advances new binding AI regulations before the end of 2026.

◆ Artificial Intelligence spread 70

27%

3M 30 Dec 2026

A bipartisan Senate AI safety bill is officially introduced before the Senate adjourns for the 2026 election.

◆ Artificial Intelligence spread 56

36%

3M 30 Dec 2026

The U.S. Congress passes an AI safety bill before the November 2026 midterm election.

◆ Artificial Intelligence spread 15

3M 9 Dec 2026

The Federal Reserve leaves the target federal funds rate unchanged at its December 2026 meeting.

▲ Markets & Economy spread 38 vs market +32

50%

AI vs 18%

3M 9 Dec 2026

The Federal Reserve hikes the target federal funds rate before the end of its December 2026 meeting.

▲ Markets & Economy spread 14 vs market -70

AI vs 77%

3M 1 Nov 2026

IMF Portwatch reports a 7-day moving average of 60 or more daily transit calls in the Strait of Hormuz by October 31, 2026.

▶ Transportation spread 60 vs market +55

55%

AI vs 0%

3M 29 Dec 2026

Apple announces an updated iPad mini, Apple TV, HomePod mini, or home hub in October or November 2026.

▣ Consumer Tech spread 16

70%

3M 29 Dec 2026

Apple updates the 14-inch MacBook Pro with an M6 chip by the end of 2026.

▣ Consumer Tech spread 44

67%

3M 29 Dec 2026

Qualcomm launches both the Snapdragon 8 Elite Gen 6 and Snapdragon 8 Elite Extreme Gen 6 flagship platforms in 2026.

▣ Consumer Tech spread 74

70%

3M 29 Dec 2026

Grand Theft Auto VI releases on PlayStation 5 before December 31, 2026.

◇ Gaming spread 34

85%

3M 29 Dec 2026

Grand Theft Auto VI releases commercially before December 31, 2026.

◇ Gaming spread 16

76%

3M 28 Dec 2026

A major cyberattack disables critical infrastructure in a G7 nation before December 31, 2026.

▽ Security & Defense spread 20

12%

3M 1 Nov 2026

The United States and Iran sign or adopt a final nuclear agreement by October 31, 2026.

⬢ Geopolitics spread 20 vs market +20

20%

AI vs 0%

3M 27 Dec 2026

The Bank of Japan raises interest rates at its next scheduled policy decision.

▲ Markets & Economy spread 20

29%

3M 27 Dec 2026

The Bank of England raises its policy rate at its next scheduled decision.

▲ Markets & Economy spread 26

15%

3M 27 Dec 2026

The Federal Reserve raises the federal funds rate at its October 28-29, 2026 meeting.

▲ Markets & Economy spread 32

20%

3M 27 Dec 2026

The European Central Bank raises interest rates at its October 30, 2026 meeting.

▲ Markets & Economy spread 40

30%

3M 9 Dec 2026

The Federal Reserve increases interest rates by 25 basis points at its December 2026 meeting.

▲ Markets & Economy spread 11 vs market -72

AI vs 76%

3M 26 Dec 2026

All participating nations endorse Turkey's COP31 climate summit action agenda.

◉ Climate & Environment spread 54

16%

3M 26 Dec 2026

Providers of legacy synthetic media systems comply with Article 50(2) of the EU AI Act by December 2, 2026.

◆ Artificial Intelligence spread 40

35%

3M 26 Dec 2026

The White House issues an executive order on AI safety before the November 2026 midterm elections.

◆ Artificial Intelligence spread 37

20%

3M 26 Dec 2026

The U.S. House schedules floor action on an AI bill during its post-midterm session in 2026.

◆ Artificial Intelligence spread 16

27%

3M 26 Dec 2026

Congress moves an AI safety bill before the House enters recess ahead of the November 2026 midterm elections.

◆ Artificial Intelligence spread 29

12%

3M 25 Dec 2026

The Bank of England raises Bank Rate at its next scheduled MPC decision.

▲ Markets & Economy spread 30

19%

Every forecast,in order.

The Democratic nominee wins the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Texas.

A Republican candidate wins the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Kansas.

A Republican candidate wins the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Texas.

A Democrat wins the Kansas US Senate seat in the 2026 midterm election.

Google, OpenAI, and Anthropic publicly launch an industry-run AI safety standards body by the end of 2026.

The Federal Reserve raises its 2026 core PCE inflation projection at its next Summary of Economic Projections.

The Federal Reserve raises its target interest rate in December 2026.

Ukraine and Russia reach an agreement establishing a shipping corridor or ceasefire for Black Sea grain exports.

The United Nations agrees on and appoints a successor to Secretary-General António Guterres before December 31, 2026.

Iran or the United States engages in renewed military action or imposes maritime restrictions in the Strait of Hormuz.

The European Union formally extends its Russia sanctions regime currently under review.

Russia and Ukraine agree to a ceasefire, prisoner exchange, or limited truce before December 31, 2026.

The Republican Party wins control of the U.S. Senate in the 2026 midterm elections.

The Republican nominee wins the Ohio U.S. Senate race in 2026.

OpenAI releases the model delayed in late September 2026 before the end of the year.

California's new child-safety and social-media AI provisions take effect as scheduled on January 1, 2027.

The European Commission advances new binding AI regulations before the end of 2026.

A bipartisan Senate AI safety bill is officially introduced before the Senate adjourns for the 2026 election.

The U.S. Congress passes an AI safety bill before the November 2026 midterm election.

The Federal Reserve leaves the target federal funds rate unchanged at its December 2026 meeting.

The Federal Reserve hikes the target federal funds rate before the end of its December 2026 meeting.

IMF Portwatch reports a 7-day moving average of 60 or more daily transit calls in the Strait of Hormuz by October 31, 2026.

Apple announces an updated iPad mini, Apple TV, HomePod mini, or home hub in October or November 2026.

Apple updates the 14-inch MacBook Pro with an M6 chip by the end of 2026.

Qualcomm launches both the Snapdragon 8 Elite Gen 6 and Snapdragon 8 Elite Extreme Gen 6 flagship platforms in 2026.

Grand Theft Auto VI releases on PlayStation 5 before December 31, 2026.

Grand Theft Auto VI releases commercially before December 31, 2026.

A major cyberattack disables critical infrastructure in a G7 nation before December 31, 2026.

The United States and Iran sign or adopt a final nuclear agreement by October 31, 2026.

The Bank of Japan raises interest rates at its next scheduled policy decision.

The Bank of England raises its policy rate at its next scheduled decision.

The Federal Reserve raises the federal funds rate at its October 28-29, 2026 meeting.

The European Central Bank raises interest rates at its October 30, 2026 meeting.

The Federal Reserve increases interest rates by 25 basis points at its December 2026 meeting.

All participating nations endorse Turkey's COP31 climate summit action agenda.

Providers of legacy synthetic media systems comply with Article 50(2) of the EU AI Act by December 2, 2026.

The White House issues an executive order on AI safety before the November 2026 midterm elections.

The U.S. House schedules floor action on an AI bill during its post-midterm session in 2026.

Congress moves an AI safety bill before the House enters recess ahead of the November 2026 midterm elections.

The Bank of England raises Bank Rate at its next scheduled MPC decision.

Every forecast,
in order.