THE ARCHIVE

Every forecast,
in order.

138 questions. Sorted by newest.

1 week 1 month 3 months 6 months 1 year 3 years 5 years 10 years 50 years

◆ Artificial Intelligence 141 ▲ Markets & Economy 139 ⬢ Geopolitics 109 ▢ Policy & Law 97 ◇ Gaming 94 ⚡ Energy 85 ▽ Security & Defense 76 ◉ Climate & Environment 69 ✦ Space 66 ▣ Consumer Tech 48 ◈ Crypto & Finance 47 ❖ Biotech 38 ✚ Health & Medicine 36 ▶ Transportation 35

3Y 8 Oct 2029

The European Food Safety Authority approves the commercial sale of cultivated meat before 2028.

◓ Food & Agriculture spread 23

30%

3Y 8 Oct 2029

Cultivated meat becomes widely available in major US grocery supermarkets before 2028.

◓ Food & Agriculture spread 21

3Y 8 Oct 2029

Nationwide UK house prices drop at least 5% year-over-year before end-2027.

⌘ Housing spread 28

25%

3Y 8 Oct 2029

The US Case-Shiller National Home Price Index drops at least 10% from its peak before end-2028.

⌘ Housing spread 12

20%

3Y 7 Oct 2029

Melbourne median dwelling values post an annual gain before end-2027.

⌘ Housing spread 29

78%

3Y 7 Oct 2029

The QV House Price Index reports annual nationwide price growth in New Zealand before end-2027.

⌘ Housing spread 54

82%

3Y 7 Oct 2029

The CoreLogic Australian Home Value Index records a nationwide quarter-over-quarter decline before end-2027.

⌘ Housing spread 50

47%

3Y 7 Oct 2029

The US Case-Shiller National Home Price Index posts a year-over-year decline before end-2027.

⌘ Housing spread 41

35%

3Y 7 Oct 2029

The product-linked rules of the EU AI Act enter into application on 2 August 2028.

◆ Artificial Intelligence spread 32

75%

3Y 7 Oct 2029

Deferred Annex III rules under the EU AI Act begin enforcement on 2 December 2027 as currently scheduled.

◆ Artificial Intelligence spread 35

59%

3Y 6 Oct 2029

A major cyberattack disables critical US energy infrastructure before 2028.

▽ Security & Defense spread 17

15%

3Y 6 Oct 2029

A new justice is confirmed to the US Supreme Court before January 2029.

▢ Policy & Law spread 46

50%

3Y 8 Nov 2028

Josh Shapiro wins the 2028 Democratic nomination for President of the United States.

▢ Policy & Law spread 6 vs market +8

13%

AI vs 5%

3Y 6 Oct 2029

The percentage of US employees working primarily remotely increases in 2027 compared to 2026.

⌂ Work & Labor spread 33

38%

3Y 6 Oct 2029

AI systems pass the Uniform CPA Examination and automate 25% of entry-level accounting roles before 2028.

⌂ Work & Labor spread 17

15%

3Y 5 Oct 2029

A major automaker begins mass production of passenger cars equipped with solid-state batteries before 2029.

▶ Transportation spread 45

28%

3Y 5 Oct 2029

The average purchase price of a new electric car drops below the average gasoline car in the US before 2028.

▶ Transportation spread 25

20%

3Y 5 Oct 2029

Commercial eVTOL passenger services operate regularly in at least one major US or European city before 2028.

▶ Transportation spread 53

22%

3Y 5 Oct 2029

The FDA suspends or revokes approval of an approved gene-editing therapy due to off-target side effects before 2028.

❖ Biotech spread 14

3Y 4 Oct 2029

Bitcoin completes its fifth block reward halving before May 2028.

◈ Crypto & Finance spread 11

97%

3Y 4 Oct 2029

Bitcoin's price increases by more than 100% within any rolling 12-month period before 2029.

◈ Crypto & Finance spread 26

80%

3Y 4 Oct 2029

Apple ceases major iOS software version updates for the iPhone 12 by December 2027.

▣ Consumer Tech spread 30

75%

3Y 4 Oct 2029

At least 15 commercial nuclear fission reactors begin operation worldwide during 2027.

⚡ Energy spread 47

20%

3Y 3 Oct 2029

Total global nuclear electricity generation in 2028 exceeds its 2021 peak.

⚡ Energy spread 26

72%

3Y 3 Oct 2029

The European Union sets a dedicated 2040 renewable-energy target excluding nuclear power.

⚡ Energy spread 50

38%

3Y 1 Jan 2028

OpenAI announces a bankruptcy filing by December 31, 2027.

◆ Artificial Intelligence spread 1 vs market -5

AI vs 8%

3Y 2 Oct 2029

The S&P 500 experiences a single-day decline of at least 7% before the end of 2027.

▲ Markets & Economy spread 53

15%

3Y 1 Jan 2028

Texas enacts a statewide data center moratorium by December 31, 2027.

▣ Consumer Tech spread 5 vs market -15

AI vs 21%

3Y 1 Jan 2028

NuScale announces a bankruptcy filing by December 31, 2027.

⚡ Energy spread 16 vs market +6

17%

AI vs 11%

3Y 1 Jan 2028

Anthropic announces a bankruptcy filing by December 31, 2027.

◆ Artificial Intelligence spread 2 vs market -7

AI vs 10%

3Y 1 Jan 2028

Indiana enacts a statewide data center moratorium by December 31, 2027.

▣ Consumer Tech spread 6 vs market -13

AI vs 17%

3Y 2 Oct 2029

The S&P 500 drops by at least 20% from its recent peak before the end of 2027.

▲ Markets & Economy spread 56

37%

3Y 1 Oct 2029

A direct military conflict between the United States and Russia or China occurs before 2028.

⬢ Geopolitics spread 14

11%

3Y 1 Jan 2028

Oklahoma enacts a statewide data center moratorium by December 31, 2027.

▢ Policy & Law spread 7 vs market -16

AI vs 22%

3Y 1 Jan 2028

Missouri enacts a statewide data center moratorium by December 31, 2027.

▢ Policy & Law spread 5 vs market -10

AI vs 14%

3Y 30 Sept 2029

A comprehensive federal data privacy law is enacted in the United States before 2028.

○ Privacy spread 12

13%

3Y 30 Sept 2029

The UK Consumer Prices Index for food and non-alcoholic beverages registers negative annual inflation before 2028.

◓ Food & Agriculture spread 58

30%

Every forecast,in order.

The European Food Safety Authority approves the commercial sale of cultivated meat before 2028.

Cultivated meat becomes widely available in major US grocery supermarkets before 2028.

Nationwide UK house prices drop at least 5% year-over-year before end-2027.

The US Case-Shiller National Home Price Index drops at least 10% from its peak before end-2028.

Melbourne median dwelling values post an annual gain before end-2027.

The QV House Price Index reports annual nationwide price growth in New Zealand before end-2027.

The CoreLogic Australian Home Value Index records a nationwide quarter-over-quarter decline before end-2027.

The US Case-Shiller National Home Price Index posts a year-over-year decline before end-2027.

The product-linked rules of the EU AI Act enter into application on 2 August 2028.

Deferred Annex III rules under the EU AI Act begin enforcement on 2 December 2027 as currently scheduled.

A major cyberattack disables critical US energy infrastructure before 2028.

A new justice is confirmed to the US Supreme Court before January 2029.

Josh Shapiro wins the 2028 Democratic nomination for President of the United States.

The percentage of US employees working primarily remotely increases in 2027 compared to 2026.

AI systems pass the Uniform CPA Examination and automate 25% of entry-level accounting roles before 2028.

A major automaker begins mass production of passenger cars equipped with solid-state batteries before 2029.

The average purchase price of a new electric car drops below the average gasoline car in the US before 2028.

Commercial eVTOL passenger services operate regularly in at least one major US or European city before 2028.

The FDA suspends or revokes approval of an approved gene-editing therapy due to off-target side effects before 2028.

Bitcoin completes its fifth block reward halving before May 2028.

Bitcoin's price increases by more than 100% within any rolling 12-month period before 2029.

Apple releases a second-generation ultra-thin iPhone Air model before 2028.

Apple releases an iPhone model designated as iPhone 19 by December 2028.

Apple releases an iPhone model designated as iPhone 18 by December 2027.

Apple ceases major iOS software version updates for the iPhone 12 by December 2027.

At least 15 commercial nuclear fission reactors begin operation worldwide during 2027.

Total global nuclear electricity generation in 2028 exceeds its 2021 peak.

The European Union sets a dedicated 2040 renewable-energy target excluding nuclear power.

OpenAI announces a bankruptcy filing by December 31, 2027.

The S&P 500 experiences a single-day decline of at least 7% before the end of 2027.

Texas enacts a statewide data center moratorium by December 31, 2027.

NuScale announces a bankruptcy filing by December 31, 2027.

Anthropic announces a bankruptcy filing by December 31, 2027.

Indiana enacts a statewide data center moratorium by December 31, 2027.

The S&P 500 drops by at least 20% from its recent peak before the end of 2027.

A direct military conflict between the United States and Russia or China occurs before 2028.

Oklahoma enacts a statewide data center moratorium by December 31, 2027.

Missouri enacts a statewide data center moratorium by December 31, 2027.

A comprehensive federal data privacy law is enacted in the United States before 2028.

The UK Consumer Prices Index for food and non-alcoholic beverages registers negative annual inflation before 2028.

Every forecast,
in order.