THE ARCHIVE
Every forecast,
in order.
109 questions in Geopolitics. Sorted by newest.
◆ Artificial Intelligence 141▲ Markets & Economy 139⬢ Geopolitics 109▢ Policy & Law 97◇ Gaming 94⚡ Energy 85▽ Security & Defense 76◉ Climate & Environment 69✦ Space 66▣ Consumer Tech 48◈ Crypto & Finance 47❖ Biotech 38✚ Health & Medicine 36▶ Transportation 35
1Y
17 Sept 2027
No trilateral Ukraine peace summit takes place prior to Russia's next elections.
85%
AI
1W
20 Sept 2026
The SPD wins the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern state election.✗ didn't
25%
AI vs 56%
3M
1 Nov 2026
The US announces the end, lifting, or suspension of its naval blockade of Iran by October 31, 2026.
12%
AI vs 6%
6M
1 Jan 2027
Russian forces enter or capture any territory in Kramatorsk by December 31, 2026.
12%
AI vs 11%
1W
20 Sept 2026
Die Linke wins the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state election.
4%
AI vs 100%
6M
1 Jan 2027
Xi Jinping is removed from power as CCP General Secretary before 2027.
3%
AI vs 4%
1W
22 Sept 2026
The US announces the end of its naval blockade of Iran by September 21, 2026.✗ didn't
7%
AI vs 0%
6M
1 Jan 2027
Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf attends a US-Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026.
4%
AI vs 30%
5Y
15 Sept 2031
A direct military conflict between two or more nuclear-armed superpowers begins before 2030.
8%
AI
1M
15 Oct 2026
Israel releases Lebanese prisoners as announced.
59%
AI
6M
1 Jan 2027
Friedrich Merz ceases to be Chancellor of Germany before 2027.
9%
AI vs 6%
1M
14 Oct 2026
Donald Trump and Xi Jinping officially extend their bilateral trade truce at the September 24, 2026 summit.✓ happened
56%
AI
1M
14 Oct 2026
U.S. envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner announce a concrete ceasefire framework between Russia and Ukraine.✗ didn't
12%
AI
1W
21 Sept 2026
Pro-Kremlin parties retain a majority in Russia's State Duma elections concluding September 20, 2026.✓ happened
98%
AI
1W
21 Sept 2026
The UN General Assembly adopts a joint resolution or formal declaration on Middle East conflicts before concluding on September 22, 2026.✓ happened
54%
AI
1W
21 Sept 2026
The Joint Security Coordination Mechanism meeting on September 16-17 produces agreed coordination measures or an updated roadmap for eastern DRC.
60%
AI
1W
21 Sept 2026
U.S. envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner announce a formal breakthrough in peace talks during their Moscow and Ukraine visits.✗ didn't
12%
AI
1M
14 Oct 2026
Russia and Ukraine reach an agreement on a broader ceasefire beyond the three-day strike halt.✗ didn't
13%
AI
1M
14 Oct 2026
The DRC and M23-led AFC alliance convene talks under the Doha framework following the Geneva security meeting.
38%
AI
3M
13 Dec 2026
Russia and Ukraine announce a broader frontline ceasefire.
17%
AI
3M
13 Dec 2026
Israel and Lebanon reach a formal ceasefire or security arrangement regarding southern Lebanon.
25%
AI
1M
14 Oct 2026
US envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner broker an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine.
9%
AI
3M
13 Dec 2026
Houthi forces establish territorial control over additional coastal territory along the Red Sea.
18%
AI
3M
13 Dec 2026
Russia and Ukraine accept a frontline ceasefire following diplomatic visits by U.S. envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner.
16%
AI
1W
21 Sept 2026
The DRC government and the M23-led AFC alliance agree to an operational ceasefire at the Geneva talks on September 16–17, 2026.✗ didn't
22%
AI
1M
1 Oct 2026
Iran and Oman announce a diplomatic agreement on Strait of Hormuz maritime traffic by September 30, 2026.✗ didn't
6%
AI vs 0%
1M
30 Sept 2026
United Russia gains the most seats in the September 2026 Russian State Duma election.✓ happened
45%
AI vs 100%
6M
1 Jan 2027
The Islamic Republic of Iran's ruling regime falls before 2027.
6%
AI vs 7%
6M
1 Jan 2027
Vladimir Putin ceases to be President of Russia by December 31, 2026.
5%
AI vs 2%