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Demographics predictions

10 dated questions on birth rates, migration, population, aging — each one answered independently by six frontier models, none of them shown the market price.

forecasts: 10
average odds: 48%
settled: 0

Next deadline · 9 Sept 2076 The global human population begins a year-over-year decline before 2085.

50Y 21 Sept 2076

The global human population remains above 1 billion in 2050.

☰ Demographics spread 2

50Y 17 Sept 2076

India's total population begins declining before 2060.

☰ Demographics spread 20

50Y 17 Sept 2076

The global human population peaks before 2080.

☰ Demographics spread 29

50Y 17 Sept 2076

The global human population begins declining before 2085.

☰ Demographics spread 62

50Y 10 Sept 2076

The total population of the United States declines year-over-year before 2040.

☰ Demographics spread 10

50Y 10 Sept 2076

The global human population reaches 11 billion before 2100.

☰ Demographics spread 9

50Y 10 Sept 2076

India's total population begins a sustained decline before 2065.

☰ Demographics spread 56

50Y 9 Sept 2076

The global human population begins a year-over-year decline before 2085.

☰ Demographics spread 64

50Y 9 Sept 2076

The global human population reaches 10 billion before 2060.

☰ Demographics spread 41

50Y 9 Sept 2076

The global human population reaches 9 billion before 2040.

☰ Demographics spread 10