THE ARCHIVE

Every forecast,
in order.

121 questions. Sorted by newest.

1 week 1 month 3 months 6 months 1 year 3 years 5 years 10 years 50 years

◆ Artificial Intelligence 141 ▲ Markets & Economy 139 ⬢ Geopolitics 109 ▢ Policy & Law 97 ◇ Gaming 94 ⚡ Energy 85 ▽ Security & Defense 76 ◉ Climate & Environment 69 ✦ Space 66 ▣ Consumer Tech 48 ◈ Crypto & Finance 47 ❖ Biotech 38 ✚ Health & Medicine 36 ▶ Transportation 35

6M 15 Mar 2027

The S&P 500 experiences a market correction of at least 10% from its recent peak before the end of 2026.

▲ Markets & Economy spread 50

44%

6M 1 Jan 2027

Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf attends a US-Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026.

⬢ Geopolitics spread 10 vs market -26

AI vs 30%

6M 31 Jan 2027

The United States enters a recession by the end of 2026.

▲ Markets & Economy spread 32 vs market +7

15%

AI vs 8%

6M 15 Mar 2027

NIST publishes the finalized TEVV-Athlon Framework for Evaluating AI Systems following public comment.

◆ Artificial Intelligence spread 49

40%

6M 15 Mar 2027

The U.S. Senate advances legislation requiring AI companies to demonstrate reasonable precautions.

◆ Artificial Intelligence spread 30

38%

6M 1 Jan 2027

Ethereum drops to $1,500 or lower on Binance by December 31, 2026.

◈ Crypto & Finance spread 20 vs market +6

16%

AI vs 10%

6M 14 Mar 2027

Tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz returns to normal operational levels before the end of 2026.

▶ Transportation spread 63

34%

6M 14 Mar 2027

The IEA projects a persistent global oil supply shortfall through the end of 2026 in its subsequent market updates.

⚡ Energy spread 50

31%

6M 3 Jan 2027

The United States and China hold dedicated bilateral AI safety talks and issue a joint statement.

◆ Artificial Intelligence spread 60

38%

6M 13 Mar 2027

Japanese authorities issue their first formal guidance or enforcement action under Japan's AI Act.

◆ Artificial Intelligence spread 50

67%

6M 13 Mar 2027

The European Commission launches a formal investigation or enforcement action under the EU AI Act against at least one recipient of its recent information requests.

◆ Artificial Intelligence spread 45

32%

6M 13 Mar 2027

The United Kingdom enacts an import ban on goods produced in Israeli West Bank settlements.

▢ Policy & Law spread 40

60%

6M 13 Mar 2027

Microsoft expands the Xbox Disc-to-Digital program to non-Insiders.

◇ Gaming spread 52

65%

6M 13 Mar 2027

All Paris Agreement signatories submit their second-round biennial transparency reports to the UNFCCC by December 31, 2026.

◉ Climate & Environment spread 6

6M 13 Mar 2027

NIST releases a revised or final version of the AI Standards Zero Draft following the public comment period.

◆ Artificial Intelligence spread 64

71%

6M 13 Mar 2027

The Bank of England raises interest rates before February 2027.

▲ Markets & Economy spread 45

37%

6M 13 Mar 2027

The WMO confirms El Niño conditions remain active through February 2027.

◉ Climate & Environment spread 70

50%

6M 13 Mar 2027

The European AI Office meets its planned enforcement milestone by 31 December 2026.

◆ Artificial Intelligence spread 35

50%

6M 13 Mar 2027

The UK government formally adopts a tax on domestic wind farms following a commission recommendation.

⚡ Energy spread 20

18%

6M 13 Mar 2027

France, the UK, or Canada formally implements an import ban on goods from Israeli West Bank settlements.

▢ Policy & Law spread 23

25%

6M 13 Mar 2027

The WMO reports that El Niño conditions continue through February 2027.

◉ Climate & Environment spread 77

77%

6M 13 Mar 2027

NIST publishes an updated revision of AI 300-1 draft guidance following the close of public comments.

◆ Artificial Intelligence spread 56

57%

6M 13 Mar 2027

The federal government deploys AI-enabled digital tools under the September 8, 2026 executive order by March 7, 2027.

◆ Artificial Intelligence spread 60

65%

6M 13 Mar 2027

The FTC finalizes its personalized pricing policy statement following the September 18, 2026 comment deadline.

○ Privacy spread 53

32%

6M 13 Mar 2027

US crude oil production averages at least 13.8 million barrels per day across full-year 2026.

⚡ Energy spread 21

55%

6M 13 Mar 2027

NIST modifies its AI documentation guidance following the September 16, 2026 public comment deadline.

◆ Artificial Intelligence spread 23

76%

6M 13 Mar 2027

The US Commerce Department implements finalized duties on solar imports from India, Indonesia, and Laos.

⚡ Energy spread 33

87%

6M 13 Mar 2027

The European Central Bank raises its policy rate to at least 2.75% by December 31, 2026.

▲ Markets & Economy spread 69

70%

6M 13 Mar 2027

Iran grants IAEA inspectors access to restricted nuclear facilities to verify enriched uranium stockpiles.

▽ Security & Defense spread 39

22%

6M 13 Mar 2027

The ongoing El Niño event persists through at least February 2027.

◉ Climate & Environment spread 75

11%

6M 13 Mar 2027

Spain's official tally of heatwave days in 2026 remains at 61 following the year-end climate reporting cycle.

◉ Climate & Environment spread 71

48%

6M 1 Jan 2027

OpenAI completes an initial public offering by December 31, 2026.

◆ Artificial Intelligence spread 11 vs market 0

AI vs 4%

6M 31 Dec 2026

China commences a military invasion of Taiwan by the end of 2026.

▽ Security & Defense spread 8 vs market +1

AI vs 2%

6M 1 Jan 2027

The Islamic Republic of Iran's ruling regime falls before 2027.

⬢ Geopolitics spread 7 vs market -1

AI vs 7%

6M 1 Jan 2027

The United States commences a military invasion of Iran before 2027.

▽ Security & Defense spread 6 vs market -16

AI vs 19%

6M 1 Jan 2027

Vladimir Putin ceases to be President of Russia by December 31, 2026.

⬢ Geopolitics spread 6 vs market +3

AI vs 2%

6M 1 Jan 2027

The Digital Asset Market Clarity Act of 2025 (H.R.3633) is signed into law before 2027.

◈ Crypto & Finance spread 33 vs market +15

19%

AI vs 4%

Every forecast,in order.

The S&P 500 experiences a market correction of at least 10% from its recent peak before the end of 2026.

Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf attends a US-Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026.

The United States enters a recession by the end of 2026.

NIST publishes the finalized TEVV-Athlon Framework for Evaluating AI Systems following public comment.

The U.S. Senate advances legislation requiring AI companies to demonstrate reasonable precautions.

Ethereum drops to $1,500 or lower on Binance by December 31, 2026.

Tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz returns to normal operational levels before the end of 2026.

The IEA projects a persistent global oil supply shortfall through the end of 2026 in its subsequent market updates.

Mitch McConnell steps down from his U.S. Senate seat before his term ends.

Friedrich Merz ceases to be Chancellor of Germany before 2027.

Bitcoin drops to $45,000 or lower by December 31, 2026.

The United States and China hold dedicated bilateral AI safety talks and issue a joint statement.

Japanese authorities issue their first formal guidance or enforcement action under Japan's AI Act.

The European Commission launches a formal investigation or enforcement action under the EU AI Act against at least one recipient of its recent information requests.

The United Kingdom enacts an import ban on goods produced in Israeli West Bank settlements.

Microsoft expands the Xbox Disc-to-Digital program to non-Insiders.

All Paris Agreement signatories submit their second-round biennial transparency reports to the UNFCCC by December 31, 2026.

NIST releases a revised or final version of the AI Standards Zero Draft following the public comment period.

The Bank of England raises interest rates before February 2027.

The WMO confirms El Niño conditions remain active through February 2027.

The European AI Office meets its planned enforcement milestone by 31 December 2026.

The UK government formally adopts a tax on domestic wind farms following a commission recommendation.

France, the UK, or Canada formally implements an import ban on goods from Israeli West Bank settlements.

The WMO reports that El Niño conditions continue through February 2027.

NIST publishes an updated revision of AI 300-1 draft guidance following the close of public comments.

The federal government deploys AI-enabled digital tools under the September 8, 2026 executive order by March 7, 2027.

The FTC finalizes its personalized pricing policy statement following the September 18, 2026 comment deadline.

US crude oil production averages at least 13.8 million barrels per day across full-year 2026.

NIST modifies its AI documentation guidance following the September 16, 2026 public comment deadline.

The US Commerce Department implements finalized duties on solar imports from India, Indonesia, and Laos.

The European Central Bank raises its policy rate to at least 2.75% by December 31, 2026.

Iran grants IAEA inspectors access to restricted nuclear facilities to verify enriched uranium stockpiles.

The ongoing El Niño event persists through at least February 2027.

Spain's official tally of heatwave days in 2026 remains at 61 following the year-end climate reporting cycle.

OpenAI completes an initial public offering by December 31, 2026.

China commences a military invasion of Taiwan by the end of 2026.

The Islamic Republic of Iran's ruling regime falls before 2027.

The United States commences a military invasion of Iran before 2027.

Vladimir Putin ceases to be President of Russia by December 31, 2026.

The Digital Asset Market Clarity Act of 2025 (H.R.3633) is signed into law before 2027.

Every forecast,
in order.