THE ARCHIVE

Every forecast,
in order.

76 questions in Security & Defense. Sorted by newest.

1 week 1 month 3 months 6 months 1 year 3 years 5 years 10 years 50 years

◆ Artificial Intelligence 141 ▲ Markets & Economy 139 ⬢ Geopolitics 109 ▢ Policy & Law 97 ◇ Gaming 94 ⚡ Energy 85 ▽ Security & Defense 76 ◉ Climate & Environment 69 ✦ Space 66 ▣ Consumer Tech 48 ◈ Crypto & Finance 47 ❖ Biotech 38 ✚ Health & Medicine 36 ▶ Transportation 35

1M 23 Oct 2026

Jaguar Land Rover reports full remediation of its publicized cyber attack before December 2026.

▽ Security & Defense spread 52

67%

3M 20 Dec 2026

The US Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency issues an Emergency Directive for a critical national zero-day vulnerability before November 2026.

▽ Security & Defense spread 60

52%

6M 20 Mar 2027

A major cyber incident causes over $1 billion in direct economic damages worldwide before the end of 2026.

▽ Security & Defense spread 74

30%

6M 20 Mar 2027

A major cyber attack disables critical infrastructure in the United States before the end of 2026.

▽ Security & Defense spread 15

1M 1 Oct 2026

The United States announces the end or suspension of its naval blockade of Iran by September 30, 2026.✗ didn't

▽ Security & Defense spread 14 vs market +7

AI vs 0%

6M 20 Mar 2027

Saudi Arabia and the Houthis announce a formal ceasefire agreement.

▽ Security & Defense spread 20

33%

3M 20 Dec 2026

Officials meeting in Paris announce an agreed post-UNIFIL security transition plan for southern Lebanon.

▽ Security & Defense spread 19

25%

3M 1 Nov 2026

A direct military clash occurs between NATO forces and Russia by October 31, 2026.

▽ Security & Defense spread 15 vs market +5

AI vs 1%

1M 19 Oct 2026

Houthi forces lose control of the newly seized Red Sea port city.

▽ Security & Defense spread 16

16%

1M 19 Oct 2026

The United States or Iran conducts a new military strike against the other.

▽ Security & Defense spread 57

30%

1M 17 Oct 2026

Tehran officially declares a restricted maritime zone outside the Strait of Hormuz in September 2026.

▽ Security & Defense spread 55

38%

6M 1 Jan 2027

Israel carries out strikes on soil in at least four distinct countries during 2026.

▽ Security & Defense spread 46 vs market +8

75%

AI vs 67%

1M 15 Oct 2026

The United States approves a formal military assistance package to Saudi Arabia following the Houthi offensive.

▽ Security & Defense spread 50

30%

1W 22 Sept 2026

Russia and Ukraine observe a reciprocal three-day halt on strikes targeting Kyiv and Moscow.✓ happened

▽ Security & Defense spread 70

25%

1M 15 Oct 2026

Israel formally establishes a new security zone inside Lebanese territory.

▽ Security & Defense spread 26

20%

1M 1 Oct 2026

Houthi military forces enter Aden by September 30, 2026.✗ didn't

▽ Security & Defense spread 3 vs market +3

AI vs 1%

1M 30 Sept 2026

A ceasefire between Israel and Iran remains in effect through September 30, 2026.✓ happened

▽ Security & Defense spread 24 vs market -23

77%

AI vs 100%

3M 13 Dec 2026

Yemeni government or coalition forces recapture strategic coastal positions held by Houthi forces along the Red Sea.

▽ Security & Defense spread 17

18%

3M 13 Dec 2026

The Houthis maintain control over Perim Island through October 2026.

▽ Security & Defense spread 74

68%

1M 14 Oct 2026

China's updated cyberspace security inspection rules take effect on 1 October 2026.✓ happened

▽ Security & Defense spread 9

92%

1M 14 Oct 2026

The United States conducts additional military strikes against Iranian targets by the end of September 2026.✓ happened

▽ Security & Defense spread 40

52%

3M 13 Dec 2026

The IAEA confirms that Iran has restored inspector access to nuclear facilities.

▽ Security & Defense spread 45

18%

1M 14 Oct 2026

At least one AI incident report is formally submitted under the EU Cyber Resilience Act in September 2026.

▽ Security & Defense spread 65

25%

3M 13 Dec 2026

IAEA inspectors regain access to monitor Iran's enriched uranium stockpiles.

▽ Security & Defense spread 43

20%

3M 13 Dec 2026

The United States and Iran announce a formal ceasefire.

▽ Security & Defense spread 50

18%

1M 14 Oct 2026

Commercial tanker transit through the Strait of Hormuz is halted due to military strikes.

▽ Security & Defense spread 21

15%

1M 14 Oct 2026

The US and Iran agree to a formal bilateral ceasefire.

▽ Security & Defense spread 14

10%

1M 14 Oct 2026

Official investigators formally attribute the September 13 Strait of Hormuz commercial vessel attack to Iran or affiliated forces.

▽ Security & Defense spread 60

60%

6M 13 Mar 2027

Iran grants IAEA inspectors access to restricted nuclear facilities to verify enriched uranium stockpiles.

▽ Security & Defense spread 39

22%

1M 1 Oct 2026

Israel initiates a major closure of its civilian airspace by September 30, 2026.

▽ Security & Defense spread 12 vs market -88

12%

AI vs 100%

6M 31 Dec 2026

China commences a military invasion of Taiwan by the end of 2026.

▽ Security & Defense spread 8 vs market +1

AI vs 2%

6M 1 Jan 2027

The United States commences a military invasion of Iran before 2027.

▽ Security & Defense spread 6 vs market -16

AI vs 19%

Every forecast,in order.

Houthi forces retain control of the Red Sea port of Mokha through October 2026.

Russian forces enter the city of Dobropillia by December 31, 2026.

NATO and Russian military forces clash directly by December 31, 2026.

The United States reinstates a military draft before the end of 2027.

Jaguar Land Rover reports full remediation of its publicized cyber attack before December 2026.

The US Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency issues an Emergency Directive for a critical national zero-day vulnerability before November 2026.

A major cyber incident causes over $1 billion in direct economic damages worldwide before the end of 2026.

A major cyber attack disables critical infrastructure in the United States before the end of 2026.

The United States announces the end or suspension of its naval blockade of Iran by September 30, 2026.✗ didn't

Saudi Arabia and the Houthis announce a formal ceasefire agreement.

Officials meeting in Paris announce an agreed post-UNIFIL security transition plan for southern Lebanon.

A direct military clash occurs between NATO forces and Russia by October 31, 2026.

Houthi forces lose control of the newly seized Red Sea port city.

The United States or Iran conducts a new military strike against the other.

Tehran officially declares a restricted maritime zone outside the Strait of Hormuz in September 2026.

Israel carries out strikes on soil in at least four distinct countries during 2026.

The United States approves a formal military assistance package to Saudi Arabia following the Houthi offensive.

Russia and Ukraine observe a reciprocal three-day halt on strikes targeting Kyiv and Moscow.✓ happened

Israel formally establishes a new security zone inside Lebanese territory.

Houthi military forces enter Aden by September 30, 2026.✗ didn't

A ceasefire between Israel and Iran remains in effect through September 30, 2026.✓ happened

Yemeni government or coalition forces recapture strategic coastal positions held by Houthi forces along the Red Sea.

The Houthis maintain control over Perim Island through October 2026.

China's updated cyberspace security inspection rules take effect on 1 October 2026.✓ happened

The United States conducts additional military strikes against Iranian targets by the end of September 2026.✓ happened

The IAEA confirms that Iran has restored inspector access to nuclear facilities.

At least one AI incident report is formally submitted under the EU Cyber Resilience Act in September 2026.

IAEA inspectors regain access to monitor Iran's enriched uranium stockpiles.

The United States and Iran announce a formal ceasefire.

Commercial tanker transit through the Strait of Hormuz is halted due to military strikes.

The US and Iran agree to a formal bilateral ceasefire.

Official investigators formally attribute the September 13 Strait of Hormuz commercial vessel attack to Iran or affiliated forces.

Iran grants IAEA inspectors access to restricted nuclear facilities to verify enriched uranium stockpiles.

Israel initiates a major closure of its civilian airspace by September 30, 2026.

China commences a military invasion of Taiwan by the end of 2026.

The United States commences a military invasion of Iran before 2027.

Every forecast,
in order.